"Quantifying the Yield Sensitivity of Modern Rice Varieties to Warming Temperatures: Evidence from the Philippines" [Job Market Paper] American Journal of Agricultural Economics. Revise and Resubmit. This study examines the relationship between yields of modern rice varieties and three major weather variables — maximum temperature, minimum temperature, and precipitation. Data from a long-running farm-level survey in the Philippines, with rich information on planted rice varieties, allows us to estimate fixed effect econometric models of rice yields. We find that increases in temperature, especially minimum temperatures, have substantial negative impacts on rice yields. Yield response to temperatures varies across different varietal groups. Early modern varieties, bred primarily for higher yields, pest resistance, and/or grain quality traits, demonstrate improved heat-stress resistance relative to traditional varieties. Moreover, the most recent varietal group bred for better tolerance to abiotic stresses are even more resilient to warming temperatures. These results provide some evidence that public investments in breeding rice varieties more tolerant to warming temperatures have been successful, and continued investments in these breeding efforts are warranted
"Do Warming Temperatures Influence Yield Response to Higher Planting Density?" This study explores how warming temperatures influence corn yield response to planting density. Using 1990-2010 field trial data from Wisconsin and econometric models with a variety of specifications, we find that warming temperatures reduce the yield benefits of increasing planting density. However, these adverse warming effects are smaller for genetically-modified (GM) corn varieties with rootworm (RW) resistant traits. Consistent with previous studies, these results support the notion that varietal improvements through genetic modification may have paved the way for higher planting densities in US corn production. Moreover, our results imply that expected in-season temperatures are important considerations when making planting density decisions.
PAPERS IN PROGRESS
Do Insurance Participation Influence the Impact of Warming on Yield Risk?